AIARD's Understanding of Changing Global Needs and Opportunities
Global Projections: More with Less
The world's population is around 5.7 billion. In thirty years it is expected to increase to 8 billion. The bulk of this increase will occur in the poorer countries. To generalize, today's arable and range lands and water resources must generate present and future food, and for most of the poorer countries, the jobs required to supply projected employment needs. Much more productive and sustainable uses of the resource bases will be required to meet dramatically changing needs driven by increased urbanization, income, and trade liberalization trends. Unfortunately, in most of the poorer countries, the capacities and systems to prepare these countries for such unprecedented change is not present. U.S. support institutions have been a major purveyor of such services throughout the world, and are well-positioned to help address current and future needs. The following outline describes the global setting and daunting challenges from which AIARD's role and mission statements evolve.
1. Agriculture and Rural Development Relationships Affecting Global Well-Being.
Extreme Levels of Global Poverty
Thirty percent of the population of the world's poorer countries, or 1.1 billion people, live in absolute poverty.
Over 1 billion of today's population live on less than 1 dollar per day.
The majority of these people live in rural areas and depend on agriculture as the main source of family livelihood.
Declining Trends
During the 1980s, food production failed to keep pace with growth in population in 2/3 of the poorer countries.
The rate of growth in the yields of basic cereals is not increasing at the levels observed during the Green Revolution era.
There is general agreement that the world's food supplies will have to double by 2025.
At current trends, income and supply pressures will require that food aid double over the next decade.
Today, grain stocks are at their lowest level, and prices are rising to the highest levels in recent history.
New Jobs to Create
Employment generation rates in poorer countries are falling behind population increases, causing political unrest and migration to already over-burdened urban centers and adjacent countries.
Such problems observed in Africa, Haiti, and elsewhere generate economic refugees and political strife. These problems are, in part, caused by a declining resource base, declining farm incomes, and limited alternative employment opportunities.
Poverty and Natural Resources Degradation
About 1/2 of the world's poorest live in rural areas which are characterized as environmentally fragile. Limited incomes and employment prospects force poorer families to deforest land and to expand agriculture.
Currently, over 37 million acres, about the size of Illinois, are deforested annually.
Such destruction also generates an additional 1 billion metric tons of carbon to the atmosphere and is a major contributor to what some scientists say is the daily extinction of 100 different types of plant and animals.
2. Dynamic Agricultural and Rural Sectors-The Keys to National Development
History demonstrates that as agriculture becomes more productive and dynamic, broader economic, social, and political development occurs.
For the largest number of the impoverished, reducing real food prices is the most important initial contribution for reducing poverty.
In poorer countries, the agriculture sector is the most important sector in terms of employment and income generation. Increased agricultural productivity unleashes a powerful engine of labor intensive growth and improved household incomes.
To generalize, the more favorable macroeconomic policy and revolutionary global trade liberalization initiatives, which include GATT and NAFTA, offer increased opportunities for all countries to appropriately utilize their comparative advantages.
3. Broader Consequences and Impacts Derived from Development Cooperation
Apart from addressing important humanitarian, political, natural resource, and economic development consequences, increased attention in support of agriculture development and the rural sector has other demonstratable benefits.
Compared with the world's developed countries, the poorer countries are increasing their trade two-fold with the United States. Presently, 50 percent of all agricultural exports are going to the lesser income countries.
According to a recent study by the International Food Policy Research Institute, as poorer countries increasingly invest in agricultural research and targeted development programs, these countries buy more goods from developed countries, including agricultural products.
Agricultural research funded through these international assistance programs has brought new technologies to U.S. farmers and resulted billions of dollars worth of improved yields.
U.S. Response and AIARD's Position
USAID, USDA, and other programs have regularly accessed development professionals from U.S. universities, PVOS, and the private sector. These experts have traditionally been regarded as some of the best sources for generating relevant advice, technologies, institutions, and strategies. However, over the past decade, donor support in these areas has notably waned. For example, over the last four years USAID support in agriculture and rural development has been further cut by 50 percent. No reversal of this trend is foreseen.
Massive U.S. demographic shifts results in a much smaller base for articulating agrarian issues; both domestically and internationally. Acute starvation, one viable means for mobilizing interest around international programs, fortunately is not as pronounced as it was 20 years ago. Further, historically, international agriculture and rural development programs were often justified around Cold War foreign policy objectives; no longer a compelling rationale.
During a period when such complex but undeniably essential needs and opportunities are not being adequately supported, AIARD, the sector's only broad based professional organization, is compelled to devote much more of its attention to explaining program importance to the broader community and mobilizing broad based support.
The world's population is around 5.7 billion. In thirty years it is expected to increase to 8 billion. The bulk of this increase will occur in the poorer countries. To generalize, today's arable and range lands and water resources must generate present and future food, and for most of the poorer countries, the jobs required to supply projected employment needs. Much more productive and sustainable uses of the resource bases will be required to meet dramatically changing needs driven by increased urbanization, income, and trade liberalization trends. Unfortunately, in most of the poorer countries, the capacities and systems to prepare these countries for such unprecedented change is not present. U.S. support institutions have been a major purveyor of such services throughout the world, and are well-positioned to help address current and future needs. The following outline describes the global setting and daunting challenges from which AIARD's role and mission statements evolve.
1. Agriculture and Rural Development Relationships Affecting Global Well-Being.
Extreme Levels of Global Poverty
Thirty percent of the population of the world's poorer countries, or 1.1 billion people, live in absolute poverty.
Over 1 billion of today's population live on less than 1 dollar per day.
The majority of these people live in rural areas and depend on agriculture as the main source of family livelihood.
Declining Trends
During the 1980s, food production failed to keep pace with growth in population in 2/3 of the poorer countries.
The rate of growth in the yields of basic cereals is not increasing at the levels observed during the Green Revolution era.
There is general agreement that the world's food supplies will have to double by 2025.
At current trends, income and supply pressures will require that food aid double over the next decade.
Today, grain stocks are at their lowest level, and prices are rising to the highest levels in recent history.
New Jobs to Create
Employment generation rates in poorer countries are falling behind population increases, causing political unrest and migration to already over-burdened urban centers and adjacent countries.
Such problems observed in Africa, Haiti, and elsewhere generate economic refugees and political strife. These problems are, in part, caused by a declining resource base, declining farm incomes, and limited alternative employment opportunities.
Poverty and Natural Resources Degradation
About 1/2 of the world's poorest live in rural areas which are characterized as environmentally fragile. Limited incomes and employment prospects force poorer families to deforest land and to expand agriculture.
Currently, over 37 million acres, about the size of Illinois, are deforested annually.
Such destruction also generates an additional 1 billion metric tons of carbon to the atmosphere and is a major contributor to what some scientists say is the daily extinction of 100 different types of plant and animals.
2. Dynamic Agricultural and Rural Sectors-The Keys to National Development
History demonstrates that as agriculture becomes more productive and dynamic, broader economic, social, and political development occurs.
For the largest number of the impoverished, reducing real food prices is the most important initial contribution for reducing poverty.
In poorer countries, the agriculture sector is the most important sector in terms of employment and income generation. Increased agricultural productivity unleashes a powerful engine of labor intensive growth and improved household incomes.
To generalize, the more favorable macroeconomic policy and revolutionary global trade liberalization initiatives, which include GATT and NAFTA, offer increased opportunities for all countries to appropriately utilize their comparative advantages.
3. Broader Consequences and Impacts Derived from Development Cooperation
Apart from addressing important humanitarian, political, natural resource, and economic development consequences, increased attention in support of agriculture development and the rural sector has other demonstratable benefits.
Compared with the world's developed countries, the poorer countries are increasing their trade two-fold with the United States. Presently, 50 percent of all agricultural exports are going to the lesser income countries.
According to a recent study by the International Food Policy Research Institute, as poorer countries increasingly invest in agricultural research and targeted development programs, these countries buy more goods from developed countries, including agricultural products.
Agricultural research funded through these international assistance programs has brought new technologies to U.S. farmers and resulted billions of dollars worth of improved yields.
U.S. Response and AIARD's Position
USAID, USDA, and other programs have regularly accessed development professionals from U.S. universities, PVOS, and the private sector. These experts have traditionally been regarded as some of the best sources for generating relevant advice, technologies, institutions, and strategies. However, over the past decade, donor support in these areas has notably waned. For example, over the last four years USAID support in agriculture and rural development has been further cut by 50 percent. No reversal of this trend is foreseen.
Massive U.S. demographic shifts results in a much smaller base for articulating agrarian issues; both domestically and internationally. Acute starvation, one viable means for mobilizing interest around international programs, fortunately is not as pronounced as it was 20 years ago. Further, historically, international agriculture and rural development programs were often justified around Cold War foreign policy objectives; no longer a compelling rationale.
During a period when such complex but undeniably essential needs and opportunities are not being adequately supported, AIARD, the sector's only broad based professional organization, is compelled to devote much more of its attention to explaining program importance to the broader community and mobilizing broad based support.
